- 5-year posted: 6.19% on 2026-11-11. Highest month-end in this period: 7.04% (2023-10); lowest: 4.64% (2016-01).
- Prime: 4.70% after the 2026-10-29 policy decision (weekly series, 2026-11-11); it was 2.45% in January 2021 and 7.20% in January 2024.
- Policy rate: 2.50% from 2026-10-29.
- Posted rates are list prices: most borrowers are offered less. See posted vs special rates.
What do ten years of posted rates, prime and the policy rate look like?
Month-end observations from the Bank of Canada’s Valet API (series V80691335, V80691311 and V39079), as published in the MITEY network’s shared rate dataset (fetched November 1, 2026).
5-year postedPrimePolicy rate
What do the gaps between these rates tell you?
The gap between the posted 5-year rate and what banks actually advertise is the discount that enters the big banks’ IRD penalty formula. The gap between prime and the policy rate has stayed close to 2.2 points over this period, which is why prime follows Bank of Canada decisions.
For a live read on whether a specific quote is good, use IsThisAGoodRate.ca, which publishes the benchmarks it scores against.
What were posted rates, prime and the policy rate each January?
A January snapshot from the same Bank of Canada month-end series, with the latest month at the bottom. The last column is how far the typical 5-year posted rate sat above prime.
| Month | 5-yr posted | Prime | Policy rate | Posted − prime |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 2016 | 4.64% | 2.70% | 0.50% | +1.94 pts |
| Jan 2017 | 4.64% | 2.70% | 0.50% | +1.94 pts |
| Jan 2018 | 5.14% | 3.45% | 1.25% | +1.69 pts |
| Jan 2019 | 5.34% | 3.95% | 1.75% | +1.39 pts |
| Jan 2020 | 5.19% | 3.95% | 1.75% | +1.24 pts |
| Jan 2021 | 4.79% | 2.45% | 0.25% | +2.34 pts |
| Jan 2022 | 4.79% | 2.45% | 0.25% | +2.34 pts |
| Jan 2023 | 6.49% | 6.45% | 4.50% | +0.04 pts |
| Jan 2024 | 6.89% | 7.20% | 5.00% | −0.31 pts |
| Jan 2025 | 6.49% | 5.45% | 3.00% | +1.04 pts |
| Jan 2026 | 6.09% | 4.45% | 2.25% | +1.64 pts |
| Nov 2026 | 6.19% | 4.70% | 2.50% | +1.49 pts |
How far has each rate moved since 2016?
- 5-year posted: from 4.64% (Jan 2016) to 7.04% (Oct 2023). The largest rise over any 12 months was 1.70 points, from Oct 2021 to Oct 2022.
- Prime: from 2.45% (Apr 2020) to 7.20% (Jul 2023).
- Policy rate: from 0.25% (Mar 2020) to 5.00% (Jul 2023).
- Prime minus policy: 2.20 points at 125 of 131 month-ends; the other 6 were all months when the policy rate changed, before the weekly prime observation caught up. That is why prime moves when the Bank of Canada does.
Months are the first month-end at each level. Variable-rate borrowers feel prime directly; posted fixed rates move on their own schedule.
How did 1-, 3- and 5-year posted rates compare?
In 109 of 131 months since January 2016 the typical 1-year posted rate was at or below the 5-year; in the other 22 it was above it. That shape matters for penalties: a big bank compares you with its posted rate for the time left, so when shorter terms post lower than the 5-year, someone breaking with a year or two left faces a lower comparison rate and a bigger IRD.
| Month | 1-yr posted | 3-yr posted | 5-yr posted |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 2016 | 3.14% | 3.39% | 4.64% |
| Jan 2017 | 3.14% | 3.39% | 4.64% |
| Jan 2018 | 3.34% | 4.15% | 5.14% |
| Jan 2019 | 3.64% | 4.29% | 5.34% |
| Jan 2020 | 3.64% | 3.94% | 5.19% |
| Jan 2021 | 2.79% | 3.49% | 4.79% |
| Jan 2022 | 2.79% | 3.49% | 4.79% |
| Jan 2023 | 6.34% | 6.14% | 6.49% |
| Jan 2024 | 7.84% | 7.04% | 6.89% |
| Jan 2025 | 7.24% | 6.54% | 6.49% |
| Jan 2026 | 5.84% | 6.05% | 6.09% |
| Nov 2026 | 5.49% | 6.05% | 6.19% |
What did these rates mean for someone renewing five years later?
Take $500,000 borrowed over 25 years at the January posted 5-year rate, then renewed five years later at the posted rate of that January, over the remaining 20 years. Posted rates are list prices and most borrowers paid less, so read this for direction and size of the change, not as anyone’s actual payment.
| Signed → renewed | Rate at signing | Rate at renewal | Payment, first term | Payment after renewal | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 2016 → Jan 2021 | 4.64% | 4.79% | $2,806.41 | $2,841.63 | +$35.22 |
| Jan 2017 → Jan 2022 | 4.64% | 4.79% | $2,806.41 | $2,841.63 | +$35.22 |
| Jan 2018 → Jan 2023 | 5.14% | 6.49% | $2,948.00 | $3,281.62 | +$333.62 |
| Jan 2019 → Jan 2024 | 5.34% | 6.89% | $3,005.55 | $3,394.02 | +$388.47 |
| Jan 2020 → Jan 2025 | 5.19% | 6.49% | $2,962.34 | $3,284.16 | +$321.82 |
| Jan 2021 → Jan 2026 | 4.79% | 6.09% | $2,848.54 | $3,163.51 | +$314.97 |
How does the Bank of Canada posted rate compare with each bank’s?
The Bank of Canada series is a typical figure across the chartered banks (6.19% on November 11, 2026), not any one bank’s rate. Each bank publishes its own, and it is the bank’s own posted rate that enters its penalty formula:
| Bank | 5-yr posted | vs typical |
|---|---|---|
| RBC | 6.19% | same |
| TD | 6.14% | −0.05 pts |
| Scotiabank | 6.19% | same |
| BMO | 6.09% | −0.10 pts |
| CIBC | 6.49% | +0.30 pts |
| National Bank | 6.14% | −0.05 pts |
How should you use rate history when choosing a mortgage?
- As context, not a forecast. This page shows where rates have been, not where they are going.
- To size a renewal. If your term started when rates were lower, plan for a higher payment and run it in the payment calculator.
- To understand penalties. Falling posted rates raise big-bank IRD penalties for people who signed when posted rates were higher; see IRD vs 3 months’ interest.
- To choose fixed or variable with your eyes open: compare the fixed and variable guides, then today’s offers on the rate grid.
Worked example: what the posted-rate swing means
On $500,000 over 25 years, a payment at the peak posted rate (7.04%) would be $3,514.44 a month; at today’s 6.19% it’s $3,255.72. Few people pay posted rates, but they set big-bank penalties.
Computed by this site’s engine from each bank’s published rates (November 2, 2026) and the rules cited below. An example, not a quote.
What this means for you
- Falling posted rates raise IRD penalties for people locked in at higher rates.
- Use the trend as context, not a forecast.
- Check today’s published rates on the rate grid.
Rules change. Every figure on this page links to the official source and shows when we checked it. If something looks out of date, tell us and we will re-check.
Frequently asked questions
How often is this updated?
When we refresh the site’s data. The date on this page is the date of the last observation used. The Bank of Canada publishes the posted series weekly.
Does a falling posted rate help me?
Not directly. Few borrowers pay posted rates, and if you have a big-bank fixed mortgage, a lower posted rate for your comparison term makes the IRD penalty larger if you break. Your actual cost depends on the rate you are offered.
Sources
- Valet API: posted conventional mortgage rates (V80691333–35), prime (V80691311), policy rate (V39079) — Bank of Canada, checked Oct 31, 2026
- Policy interest rate — Bank of Canada, checked Oct 31, 2026
- Mortgage rates — RBC Royal Bank, checked Nov 2, 2026
- Mortgage rates — TD Canada Trust, checked Nov 2, 2026
- Mortgage rates — Scotiabank, checked Nov 2, 2026
- Today’s mortgage rates — BMO, checked Nov 2, 2026
- Mortgage rates across Canada — CIBC, checked Nov 2, 2026
- Mortgage rates — National Bank, checked Nov 2, 2026
Educational information only, not financial, legal or tax advice. BankMortgages.ca is independent and is not affiliated with, endorsed by or paid by any bank named on this site. Bank terms change: confirm every rate and term with the lender and the official sources linked on each page before you act. Read the full disclaimer.